Since the demise of the AHCA there have been countless articles on what is next in the US Health Care marketplace. To paraphrase Dick Motta, “it isn’t clear until the fat lady sings”. We can take educated guesses but I defy anyone in early 2009 when the ACA was first enacted to have predicted what would be the landscape in April of 2017. From my perspective, the best guesses are doomed to be wrong but if you have some time, you should glance through a few interesting articles that give you clues to what may happen next.
The first is from the Hill and it details and innovative approach proposed by Republican Senators Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker to allow people to use their ObamaCare subsidies to purchase any state-approved plan on the private market if there are no insurers selling policies on the federal exchange in their county.
If you are interested in the future of health care for employers, Mintz Levin has an interesting take on what the impact of AHCA and its defeat will have on employers. Some are obvious. Fewer Medicaid-eligible individuals would mean more uncompensated care – a significant portion of the costs of which would likely be passed on to employers in the form of higher premiums. Some are not so obvious. States may create their own “play or pay” regulations (remember, the ACA was modelled in part after the Massachusetts 2006 Act Providing Access to Affordable, Quality, Accountable Health Care program colloquially referred to as Romneycare). I would strongly recommend that you read the article at:
The most interesting thing is that the defeat of AHCA has derailed state plans for their own “play or pay” laws. Some “Progressive” states such as California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have considered single-payer proposals that could have been funded in part by AHCA’s provision to allow states easier approval processes for Medicaid Waiver’s to choose how their Medicaid monies should be used in their own states.
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